🌍 Weekend Landscape
After two matchweeks, Manchester City are the only team with a perfect record. Beyond that, almost every team still has a question mark. Chelsea followed a frustrating 1–1 draw at home to Aston Villa with a dominant 5–0 win over Manchester United. Crystal Palace have four points and are yet to concede. That in itself feels like a miracle, considering they have conceded 28 chances while creating only six. And Arsenal have controlled long spells of both matches, yet have only one goal to show for it.
This weekend should start to answer some of those questions. City v Liverpool is the first meeting of two sides near the top, at least at this early stage. Arsenal v United puts a dominant Arsenal attack still searching for its cutting edge against a United team needing a response. West Ham v Everton, Palace v Tottenham and Brighton v Villa all offer early opportunities to establish whether encouraging starts are sustainable.
Manchester City v Liverpool
Fri 18 Sep, 19:00 · Joie Stadium · Sky Sports
Model: Manchester City 44% · Draw 30% · Liverpool 27%
Most likely scorelines: 1–1 (13.9%) · 1–0 (11.1%) · 0–0 (10.4%)
Manchester City are the only team to have won both of their opening games. They beat Birmingham 3–1 before winning 4–1 at Aston Villa, scoring seven goals from 5.95 xG across the two matches. They have started the season strongly at both ends of the pitch.
Liverpool are unbeaten too. They opened with a 4–0 win at Charlton before drawing 1–1 with Tottenham last weekend. They have looked much more settled than they did at the start of last season, although City will provide their biggest test so far.
Our model has City as favourites, but Liverpool still have a reasonable chance of getting something from the game. The draw probability is also relatively high, so the model expects this to be closer than City’s first two games.
STAT TO WATCH | 7 goals · two matches
City have scored seven times already, more than any other side so far. Liverpool’s task is to reduce the number of high-quality moments City can create — because once the champions find rhythm, they are difficult to contain.
Charlton Athletic v London City Lionesses
Sat 19 Sep, 12:30 · The Valley · BBC One
Model: Charlton Athletic 14% · Draw 28% · London City Lionesses 59%
Most likely scorelines: 0–1 (16.9%) · 0–2 (13.7%) · 0–0 (13.0%)
Charlton have had a difficult start back in the top flight. A 4–0 loss to Liverpool was followed by a narrow 1–0 defeat at Everton, and they have created just 0.60 xG across the two games. They have been fairly organised defensively, but going forward they need to offer more.
London City have had a mixed start. They beat Manchester United 2–1 in their opening game, then lost by the same scoreline at West Ham despite creating 1.50 xG. They should carry more attacking threat here, although Charlton at home may not make it easy for them.
Our model has London City as clear favourites. For Charlton, the challenge is to stay in the game and give themselves — and the home crowd — something to work with.
STAT TO WATCH | 0.60 xG · zero goals
Charlton have created just 0.60 xG across their opening two matches. They have had some good spells, but they need to create much more going forward if they are to start picking up points.
Chelsea v Birmingham City
Sat 19 Sep, 12:45 · Stamford Bridge · Sky Sports
Model: Chelsea 74% · Draw 18% · Birmingham City 9%
Most likely scorelines: 2–0 (12.3%) · 3–0 (10.1%) · 1–0 (9.3%)
Chelsea have shown plenty of attacking threat in their first two games. They created 3.60 xG in the opening draw with Aston Villa, before putting five past Manchester United last weekend. Five different players scored at Leigh, which shows just how many different attacking options they have.
Birmingham, though, have made an encouraging start. They gave Manchester City a difficult game in their opener, then led Brighton for much of last weekend’s 2–2 draw. Océane Hurtré has scored in both league games, while Lily Crosthwaite got her first WSL goal against Brighton.
Our model gives Birmingham only a 9% chance of winning, so Chelsea are clear favourites. But Birmingham have already shown in their first two games that they can compete at this level.
STAT TO WATCH | 19 shots · two matches
Lauren James has taken 19 shots across Chelsea’s opening two WSL matches. Her movement as a roaming false nine gave Manchester United plenty of problems, and Birmingham will have to find a way to deal with both her direct threat and the space she creates for others.
Arsenal v Manchester United
Sat 19 Sep, 17:30 · Emirates Stadium · Sky Sports
Model: Arsenal 68% · Draw 23% · Manchester United 9%
Most likely scorelines: 1–0 (16.6%) · 2–0 (15.9%) · 0–0 (10.8%)
Arsenal have taken four points from their opening two games, although they probably feel it should have been six. They beat Brighton 1–0 before drawing with Crystal Palace despite creating 2.56 xG and taking 30 shots. Creating chances has not been the problem so far; taking them has.
Manchester United have had a much more difficult start. They lost 2–1 to London City Lionesses before a 5–0 defeat at home to Chelsea. Across those two games, they have conceded seven goals while creating just 0.45 xG. Both meetings with Arsenal finished 0–0 last season, but United come into this one in very different form.
Our model has Arsenal as strong favourites. United kept them out twice last season, but given how little they have created so far, they may need another strong defensive performance to get something from this game.
STAT TO WATCH | 3.88 xG · one goal
Arsenal have created 3.88 xG in two matches but scored once. The chance creation is already there; more ruthless finishing would make them extremely difficult to stop.
Brighton & Hove Albion v Aston Villa
Sun 20 Sep, 14:00 · American Express Stadium · Sky Sports+
Model: Brighton 56% · Draw 26% · Aston Villa 18%
Most likely scorelines: 1–1 (12.6%) · 1–0 (11.1%) · 2–0 (10.8%)
Brighton are still looking for their first win under Arturo Ruiz, but there were encouraging signs against Birmingham. They came from two goals down to draw 2–2, created 2.69 xG and found a late equaliser through Kiko Seike. They now return to the Amex for the first of four league games there this season.
Villa have also had a difficult start. They held Chelsea despite conceding 3.60 xG, then lost 4–1 to Manchester City after conceding another 3.42 xG. Those are two of the strongest attacks in the league, but Villa are still giving up too many good chances.
Our model gives Brighton the edge. They have created enough chances in their first two games to have more than one point, while Villa have struggled to keep chances out at the other end. This looks like a good opportunity for Brighton to get their first win.
STAT TO WATCH | 2.69 xG · two goals
Brighton created 2.69 xG at Birmingham, the third-highest total of Matchweek 2, but still needed a late equaliser to draw 2–2. The result was frustrating, but the number and quality of chances they created was encouraging.
Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur
Sun 20 Sep, 14:00 · Selhurst Park · Sky Sports+
Model: Crystal Palace 19% · Draw 28% · Tottenham Hotspur 54%
Most likely scorelines: 1–1 (13.0%) · 0–1 (12.4%) · 0–2 (11.0%)
Crystal Palace have made a strong start back in the WSL. They beat Everton 1–0 before holding Arsenal to a goalless draw at the Emirates, despite Arsenal creating 2.56 xG and taking 30 shots. Palace have scored only once in two games, but four points and two clean sheets is an impressive return.
Tottenham are also unbeaten after beating West Ham 3–1 and drawing 1–1 at Liverpool. They have offered more going forward than Palace so far, which makes this an interesting matchup against a team that has proved difficult to break down.
Our model gives Spurs the edge, although the draw is also a real possibility. Palace have defended well in their first two games; the bigger question is whether they can create enough at the other end.
STAT TO WATCH | 3.60 xG faced · zero goals conceded
Palace have kept two clean sheets despite opponents creating 3.60 xG across their opening two matches. The results have been excellent, although the underlying numbers suggest they have still given up plenty of chances. Tottenham, with four goals already, will test that again.
West Ham United v Everton
Sun 20 Sep, 14:00 · Chigwell Construction Stadium · Sky Sports+
Model: West Ham United 37% · Draw 32% · Everton 31%
Most likely scorelines: 1–1 (14.8%) · 0–0 (11.6%) · 1–0 (10.5%)
Our model has this as the closest game of Matchweek 3. West Ham responded to their opening defeat at Tottenham by beating London City Lionesses 2–1, with Kelly Gago and Viviane Asseyi getting the goals. They also did a good job defensively. Katie Zelem made six interceptions, while West Ham regularly stopped London City from playing through midfield.
Everton also have three points after beating Charlton 1–0, although the winner was an own goal and Charlton finished the game with nine players. Everton created more in their opening defeat to Crystal Palace, but two games into the season, none of their own players has scored yet. Finding more threat in front of goal remains the obvious issue.
There is very little between the teams in our model, with West Ham given a slight edge at home. This looks like one of the hardest games of the weekend to call.
STAT TO WATCH | 2.04 xG · no player goal
Everton have created 2.04 xG across their opening two matches, but their only goal was Charlton’s own goal. They are creating chances; the problem so far has been finishing them.