🌍 Weekend Landscape
After four matchweeks, the season is beginning to take shape. Manchester City are still the only side with a perfect record, although their 1–0 win at Charlton showed that even the league leaders can be made to work. Tottenham continued their impressive start with a dominant 4–0 victory over Aston Villa, the weekend’s biggest statement, while Chelsea’s 1–0 win over Arsenal ended the Gunners’ 20-match unbeaten league run. London City, meanwhile, have quietly built momentum: they have won three of their opening four WSL matches, with Alexia Putellas’ first league goal helping them beat Brighton last weekend.
After taking just two points from their first four league matches, Aston Villa parted ways with Natalia Arroyo this week, with Brian Sørensen taking interim charge. Wednesday’s Players Cup win over Newcastle offered an immediate lift, but their league performance still needs to follow.
This weekend brings a different set of tests. City host Arsenal in the headline fixture, with Arsenal looking to respond after defeat at Chelsea and City aiming to turn their fast start into a significant early gap at the top. Elsewhere, Tottenham meet London City in a contest between two sides seriously knocking on the door of the top four; United’s first win gives their meeting with Liverpool a different feel; and Chelsea travel to West Ham with the chance to maintain their strong defensive start. Villa, Brighton, Everton, Birmingham and Charlton all arrive with more immediate questions of their own.
Manchester United v Liverpool
Sat 3 Oct, 13:30 · Progress with Unity Stadium
Model: Manchester United 42% · Draw 31% · Liverpool 27%
Most likely scorelines: 1–1 (14.8%) · 0–0 (12.1%) · 1–0 (11.7%)
United’s first two league matches made for a difficult start to Eva Olid’s tenure, but the mood has shifted quickly. They have now won three in a row across league and cup: 10–1 against WSL2 side Sheffield United, 2–1 over West Ham for their first league points, then 5–1 away at WSL2 side Durham on Wednesday.
The cup results need their proper context, but they have followed a league win and given United a much steadier platform than they had a fortnight ago. Liverpool bring momentum of their own: Sunday’s 2–0 Merseyside derby victory was followed by a 4–3 Players Cup win at Birmingham, sealed by Natalia Ramos in stoppage time.
United are narrow favourites at home, though this is not a comfortable call. The draw remains a serious possibility, and 1–1 is the model’s most likely single scoreline. This is a chance for United to show that their recent improvement carries into the league; Liverpool can make an equally strong early statement with another result away from home.
STAT TO WATCH | Three wins in seven days
United’s run includes two Players Cup matches against WSL2 opposition, so West Ham remains the most meaningful marker—but the pressure around their start has undeniably eased.
West Ham United v Chelsea
Sun 4 Oct, 14:00 · Victoria Road Stadium
Model: West Ham 10% · Draw 20% · Chelsea 69%
Most likely scorelines: 0–2 (13%) · 0–1 (10%) · 1–1 (10%)
Chelsea have quietly built momentum since their opening-weekend draw with Aston Villa. They have won their last three league matches, most recently beating Arsenal 1–0 to end Arsenal’s 20-match unbeaten WSL run. That was followed by a goalless draw away at OL Lyon in the Champions League on Wednesday, a valuable early point in their European campaign.
West Ham lost 2–1 at Manchester United last weekend but responded well in the Players Cup, coming from behind to beat Southampton 3–1. That result does not change the scale of Chelsea’s task, but it gives them something positive to take into a difficult home fixture.
Chelsea are clear favourites, with the model leaning toward a controlled away win. West Ham’s best route is likely to keep the game close for as long as possible, but Chelsea’s recent defensive record suggests opportunities may be limited.
STAT TO WATCH | Three clean sheets in four league matches
Chelsea are the only WSL side to have conceded just once so far.
Everton v Birmingham City
Sun 4 Oct, 14:00 · Goodison Park
Model: Everton 45% · Draw 30% · Birmingham City 25%
Most likely scorelines: 1–1 (14%) · 1–0 (10%) · 0–0 (10%)
Everton have taken six points from their opening four league matches, but the picture is less secure than that record suggests. Their two wins, against Charlton and West Ham, were both 1–0 victories decided by opposition own goals. The results count, but Everton are still waiting for one of their own players to score in the league.
Birmingham have shown that they can cause problems in attack. They drew 2–2 with Brighton and 3–3 with Crystal Palace, then scored three again in Wednesday’s 4–3 Players Cup defeat to Liverpool. The other side of that is clear too: Birmingham have conceded 10 league goals already, and their attacking approach is leaving space for opponents to exploit.
Everton are narrow favourites at home, but this has the feel of a game in which both sides have something to prove. Everton need more attacking output to make their points total sustainable; Birmingham need to find a balance between carrying a threat and keeping the game under control.
STAT TO WATCH | No Everton player has scored in the league yet
Everton’s two WSL wins have both come through opposition own goals.
Aston Villa v Crystal Palace
Sun 4 Oct, 14:00 · Villa Park
Model: Aston Villa 47% · Draw 29% · Crystal Palace 24%
Most likely scorelines: 1–1 (14%) · 1–0 (11%) · 0–0 (10%)
Villa’s start has been too uneven. They opened with an encouraging draw at Chelsea, but have taken only two points from four league matches and their 4–0 defeat at Tottenham last weekend proved to be Natalia Arroyo’s final game in charge. Brian Sørensen has stepped in on an interim basis, beginning with Wednesday’s 3–1 Players Cup win over Newcastle.
That cup result gives Villa something to build on, but the league picture still needs to change quickly. They have produced flashes without sustaining them, and now need to show that the response under Sørensen can carry into Sunday.
Palace, meanwhile, have been the brightest of the promoted sides so far. Five league points, including last weekend’s 3–3 draw at Birmingham, have given them a useful platform; Wednesday’s 3–0 Players Cup win over Charlton added a more composed defensive response. A result here would further strengthen the sense that Palace are adapting well to this level.
Villa remain narrow favourites, but they are also the side with more to prove. Their new interim coach has a first chance to turn a midweek lift into a meaningful league result.
STAT TO WATCH | Two points from four league matches
Villa have created only 1.70 xG across their opening four WSL fixtures; 0.58 of that came in the opening draw at Chelsea.
Brighton v Charlton Athletic
Sun 4 Oct, 14:00 · American Express Stadium
Model: Brighton 62% · Draw 26% · Charlton Athletic 13%
Most likely scorelines: 1–0 (15%) · 2–0 (14%) · 1–1 (12%)
Brighton are still waiting for their first league win, but their opening four games have contained more promise than their two-point return suggests. They created 3.17 xG in the draw with Aston Villa and 1.77 xG in last weekend’s defeat at London City, only to leave both matches without the result their chances pointed towards. Wednesday’s 1–0 Players Cup loss to Tottenham added another frustration.
Charlton did offer a more resilient display in last weekend’s 1–0 defeat to Manchester City, keeping the champions to a single goal after difficult earlier results. But Wednesday’s 3–0 Players Cup loss at Crystal Palace showed that the defensive issues have not disappeared. They return to Brighton having faced them in the competition only a week ago, when Brighton won 4–0.
Brighton are clear favourites and have the chance to turn encouraging underlying performances into a first league win. Charlton’s task is to take the defensive discipline they showed against City and make this a much more compact, competitive contest than their last meeting with Brighton.
STAT TO WATCH | 8.33 xG, two league points
Brighton have created 8.33 xG across four league matches—the fifth-highest total in the division—yet have scored only three times and remain without a win.
Tottenham Hotspur v London City Lionesses
Sun 4 Oct, 14:00 · Brisbane Road
Model: Tottenham Hotspur 32% · Draw 28% · London City Lionesses 40%
Most likely scorelines: 1–1 (14%) · 1–2 (9%) · 0–0 (8%)
Tottenham have made one of the strongest starts in the division. They are unbeaten after four league matches, have scored 15 goals, and followed Sunday’s 4–0 win over Aston Villa with a 1–0 Players Cup victory at Brighton in midweek. The results have been emphatic, but this is their most demanding league test so far.
London City have also won three of their opening four league games. Their response to the defeat at West Ham has been convincing: 4–1 at Charlton, 2–0 against Brighton, then a 1–0 Players Cup win at Ipswich on Wednesday. They arrive with momentum and, unlike Spurs, have already shown they can win away from home in the league.
The model gives London City a narrow edge, though this is one of the weekend’s closest calls. Spurs’ attacking form makes them difficult to oppose; London City’s early results suggest they are ready for a match of this level. It also has the feel of an early head-to-head that could matter in the race behind the established leading group: whichever side can take points from meetings like this may give itself the best chance of breaking into the top four.
STAT TO WATCH | 15 goals in four league matches
Tottenham have scored more WSL goals than any other side so far, while conceding only twice.
Manchester City v Arsenal
Sun 4 Oct, 16:30 · Etihad Stadium
Model: Manchester City 27% · Draw 27% · Arsenal 46%
Most likely scorelines: 1–1 (12%) · 1–2 (9%) · 0–2 (7%)
Manchester City are still the WSL’s only perfect side: four wins from four. The demands of Europe are beginning to test that run though. Last weekend’s 1–0 win at Charlton was far tighter than their earlier league results, before Thursday’s 1–1 Champions League draw with Real Madrid. City have still found a way through every league test, but the challenge is now to manage major games arriving one after another.
Arsenal began the season as the leading title contender, but their campaign has yet to properly take shape. They have taken five league points from four matches, then let a 2–0 lead slip in Wednesday’s 2–2 draw at Paris FC. They travel to the Etihad seven points behind City, knowing that a home win would stretch that gap to 10 after only five rounds.
The model gives Arsenal the edge, but City’s perfect league record and home advantage make this far from straightforward. It is too early for a result to settle the title race, but this is a major early test of Arsenal’s ability to stay in touch—and of City’s ability to maintain their pace across two competitions.
STAT TO WATCH | 12 points from 12
City have won all four league matches so far, scoring 12 goals. No other WSL side has a perfect record.