🌍 Weekend Landscape
Welcome to Matchweek 7. Manchester City remain the pace-setters: they are the only side with a perfect start, winning all six matches, scoring 19 goals and holding a two-point lead over Chelsea. Just below them, Chelsea are also unbeaten, with five wins and one draw, and their momentum only grew after last weekend’s 6–2 win over Tottenham. London City sit third after winning five of their six matches, so City, Chelsea and London City have begun to create some separation as the early front-runners.
Arsenal’s 1–1 draw with Birmingham City last weekend left them with six points from six matches ahead of a North London derby at Tottenham. The title is already becoming a distant conversation; another poor result would make the top three and Champions League qualification the more immediate concern. Elsewhere, United host City after three straight league wins, while London City travel to Liverpool and Villa go to Everton looking to build on their first league victory. Brighton–West Ham and Birmingham–Charlton complete the round, with Charlton still searching for their first point.
Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal
Sat 24 Oct, 12:45 · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Model: Tottenham 18% · Draw 25% · Arsenal 57%
Most likely scorelines: 1–1 (11.9%) · 1–2 (9.9%) · 0–2 (9.8%)
Tottenham’s start has still produced three wins and 18 league goals, but the last two matches have changed the mood around them. London City won 6–1 in north London before Chelsea followed with a 6–2 victory, leaving Spurs with 12 goals conceded in two league games.
Arsenal arrive with a different problem. Their 1–1 draw with Birmingham last weekend left them with six points from six matches and five league games without a win since the opening weekend. The underlying control has often been there, but it has not turned into enough goals.
This is still Arsenal’s match to win, but not by the kind of margin that once felt routine in this derby. Tottenham need to make the game competitive for longer than they managed against London City and Chelsea.
STAT TO WATCH | 12 goals conceded in two games
Tottenham have conceded 12 goals across their last two league matches, after scoring 18 in their opening six games. Arsenal have scored only five league goals all season, so this is an immediate test of whether Spurs can restore their compactness—or whether Arsenal can finally convert control into a convincing result.
Brighton v West Ham United
Sat 24 Oct, 17:15 · American Express Stadium
Model: Brighton 67% · Draw 23% · West Ham 10%
Most likely scorelines: 1–0 (15%) · 2–0 (15%) · 1–1 (10%)
Brighton have only one league win from six, but their underlying performances have often been stronger than that record suggests. They created 3.17 xG in the draw with Aston Villa and 3.73 xG in the 5–1 win over Charlton, before taking Manchester City close in a 3–2 defeat last weekend.
West Ham arrive after an important 1–0 win at Crystal Palace, their second league victory of the season. It was needed after the home defeat to Chelsea, but their wider record remains uneven: six points from six matches, with five goals scored and 10 conceded.
Brighton are clear favourites at the Amex. The question is whether they can turn their chance creation into a more routine result; West Ham’s route is likely to be a compact performance and another game decided by small margins.
STAT TO WATCH | 6.90 xG in two matches
Brighton created 3.17 xG against Aston Villa and 3.73 xG against Charlton. Their results have not always matched their attacking output, but the model sees that underlying production as the key reason they are strong favourites here.
Crystal Palace v Chelsea
Sun 25 Oct, 12:00 · 360 Engage Stadium
Model: Crystal Palace 2% · Draw 9% · Chelsea 89%
Most likely scorelines: 0–3 (14.4%) · 0–2 (13.5%) · 0–4 (11.5%)
Chelsea return to league action unbeaten after five wins and a draw, with 18 goals scored and only three conceded. Their 6–2 win over Tottenham last weekend was their fifth successive league victory and another reminder of how quickly they can turn control into goals.
Palace have made a respectable start as a promoted side, collecting six points from six games, but their last outing was a 1–0 home defeat to West Ham. They have shown enough to compete in this division, but Chelsea present a very different level of test.
The task for Palace is to stay in the game for as long as possible and deny Chelsea the early breakthrough that can open up the match. Chelsea are overwhelming favourites here and rightly so.
STAT TO WATCH | Three goals conceded in six matches
Chelsea have allowed only three league goals so far—fewer than any other side—and have already scored 18. Palace have taken points from four of their six matches, but this is the sharpest test of their early resilience.
Birmingham City v Charlton Athletic
Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 · St Andrew’s @ Knighthead Park
Model: Birmingham City 58% · Draw 24% · Charlton Athletic 18%
Most likely scorelines: 1–1 (11%) · 2–1 (10%) · 2–0 (10%)
Birmingham are still looking for their first league win, but their season has contained more encouragement than the table alone suggests. They have drawn with Crystal Palace and Arsenal, scored twice against Manchester City, and showed again at the Emirates last weekend that they can stay competitive against stronger opposition.
Charlton’s league position is more urgent. Six matches have brought six defeats, three goals scored and 18 conceded. Wednesday’s 2–0 Players Cup win over Bristol City was a welcome result, but the immediate challenge is carrying some of that confidence into the league.
Birmingham are deserved favourites at home. Charlton have a chance to make this uncomfortable if they can keep the game tight, but the home side have shown more evidence of being able to compete at this level. A first league win would give Birmingham’s start a very different shape.
STAT TO WATCH | Six league defeats
Charlton are still searching for their first WSL point after six matches. Birmingham are winless too, but have drawn three times—including against Arsenal—and have scored eight league goals to Charlton’s three.
Everton v Aston Villa
Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 · Goodison Park
Model: Everton 39% · Draw 35% · Aston Villa 27%
Most likely scorelines: 0–0 (16.2%) · 1–1 (15.1%) · 1–0 (13.9%)
Everton sit on nine points after six matches, but their season has been built more on narrow margins than attacking fluency. They have scored only five league goals, yet their defensive record has kept them competitive and given them three wins already.
Villa finally registered their first league victory last weekend, beating Liverpool 2–1 after a difficult opening block. It does not solve every issue around their season, but it gives them something tangible to build on after taking only three points from their first five matches.
This looks close. Everton have the home advantage and the better points return, while Villa arrive with fresh confidence after their breakthrough win. Neither side is likely to want an open game early, which is why the draw remains a major part of the forecast.
STAT TO WATCH | Five Everton league goals
Everton have won three of their six league matches despite scoring only five times. Villa have scored six, but only two came in their first league win last weekend. Fine margins are likely to decide this one.
Liverpool v London City Lionesses
Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 · St Helens Stadium
Model: Liverpool 19% · Draw 27% · London City Lionesses 54%
Most likely scorelines: 1–1 (13.2%) · 0–1 (11.9%) · 0–2 (10.9%)
London City have made the strongest early case of any side outside Manchester City and Chelsea. Five wins from six league games have taken them to third, and Wednesday’s 2–1 Players Cup victory at West Ham added another result to an increasingly convincing opening spell.
Liverpool remain difficult to place. They have scored 10 league goals—more than every side outside the current top four except Brighton, who are level with them—but have won only twice and lost at Aston Villa last weekend. Their midweek 5–3 Players Cup defeat to Manchester United was another reminder that their matches can quickly become open.
London City are deserved favourites, but this is a useful test of their position near the top. A win at St Helens would make it harder to describe their start as anything temporary; Liverpool have enough attacking threat to make the afternoon uncomfortable if London City leave the game open.
STAT TO WATCH | Five wins from six
London City have taken 15 points from their opening six league matches. Liverpool have scored 10 league goals, but London City have conceded only six—so this pits Liverpool’s attacking threat against one of the division’s most consistent defensive starts.
Manchester United v Manchester City
Sun 25 Oct, 18:00 · Progress with Unity Stadium
Model: Manchester United 18% · Draw 25% · Manchester City 57%
Most likely scorelines: 1–1 (11.9%) · 1–2 (9.9%) · 0–2 (9.8%)
United’s season has changed quickly. After losing their first two league matches, they have won their last three and added a 5–3 Players Cup victory at Liverpool in midweek. The recovery has given them momentum, but hosting the league leaders is their biggest test yet.
City arrive with six wins from six and 19 league goals. They have not been flawless defensively—conceding in four of those matches—but they have repeatedly found a way to win and remain the division’s pace-setters.
City are deserved favourites, though United’s recent run makes this more competitive than the table alone suggests. The home side will need to contain City’s attack without losing the confidence that has carried them through the past few weeks.
STAT TO WATCH | Six wins from six
City are the WSL’s only perfect side after six matches. United have taken 10 points from their last four league games after starting with two defeats, giving this derby a much different feel from the opening weeks.