🌍 Weekend Landscape
Welcome to Matchweek 8 of the WSL preview. Chelsea and Manchester City are level on 19 points after seven matches, with Chelsea top on goal difference following their 3–1 win at Crystal Palace. London City remain three points behind in third after their 2–2 draw at Liverpool, so Sunday’s meeting with City is a significant early test for a side that has already made a strong start. Arsenal’s 2–1 win at Tottenham ended their five-match league wait for a victory, but they are still ten points off the pace. At the bottom, Charlton remain without a point after seven matches.
The weekend begins at Goodison Park, where Everton host Manchester United, before Sunday brings London City v City and Arsenal v Aston Villa at noon. Spurs need a response at Birmingham after three successive league defeats, while Brighton v Palace and West Ham v Liverpool offer opportunities to climb a congested middle of the table. Chelsea’s trip to Charlton closes the round: the leaders will expect to maintain their momentum, while Charlton need a performance that gives them something to build on.
Everton v Manchester United
Sat 31 Oct, 12:45 · Goodison Park
Model: Everton 17% · Draw 34% · Manchester United 50%
Most likely scorelines: 0–1 (19%) · 0–0 (18%) · 1–1 (13%)
Everton’s 3–2 defeat to Aston Villa last weekend left them with three wins and four losses from seven league matches. They responded with a 2–1 Players Cup win at Sheffield United on Wednesday, their third victory from three in the competition, but Saturday comes quickly. Only seven league goals so far gives them little margin when matches become open.
United also had a midweek cup win, beating Burnley 3–0 at home. That followed the 1–1 draw with Manchester City and extended their unbeaten run to nine matches in all competitions. The win also brought returns for Celin Bizet, Jayde Riviere and Emma Watson, which is useful depth entering a quick turnaround.
United are favourites, but not overwhelmingly so. Everton’s home advantage and United’s relatively low-scoring league return make the draw a live possibility; 0–1 is simply the model’s most likely single outcome. For Everton, the task is to keep the match controlled and turn their periods of pressure into goals. For United, another result would further underline how far they have come since the opening fortnight.
STAT TO WATCH | Nine matches unbeaten
United have not lost in nine matches across all competitions. Everton have three league wins already, but have scored only seven goals in seven games.
London City Lionesses v Manchester City
Sun 1 Nov, 12:00 · CopperJax Community Stadium
Model: London City 33% · Draw 22% · Manchester City 45%
Most likely scorelines: 1–1 (8%) · 1–2 (8%) · 2–2 (7%)
London City’s rise has been sustained rather than surprising by now. They are third after five wins, a draw and one defeat from their first seven league matches, with 19 goals scored. Sunday gives them a direct chance to close the three-point gap to the two leaders and show that their start can stand up against the champions.
They prepared with a 4–2 Players Cup win over Crystal Palace on Wednesday, led by an Isobel Goodwin hat-trick. Manchester City, meanwhile, were held to a 1–1 Champions League draw with Paris Saint-Germain on Thursday. Bunny Shaw’s late penalty looked to have won it, but PSG levelled three minutes later. The result leaves City unbeaten in Europe but still looking for their first win, and Sunday comes on a short turnaround.
City are narrow favourites, not overwhelming ones. London City have earned that status as a genuine home threat, and the prospect of two attacks that have each scored 19 league goals explains why the model’s leading outcomes are so close. A City win would preserve their place alongside Chelsea at the top; a London City result would make the early title picture considerably more interesting.
STAT TO WATCH | 38 league goals between them
London City and Manchester City have each scored 19 league goals in seven matches. Only Chelsea have scored more this season.
Arsenal v Aston Villa
Sun 1 Nov, 12:00 · Emirates Stadium
Model: Arsenal 80% · Draw 16% · Aston Villa 4%
Most likely scorelines: 2–0 (18%) · 1–0 (15%) · 3–0 (14%)
Both teams begin the weekend on nine points, but their recent paths have been very different. Arsenal’s 2–1 win at Tottenham ended a five-match league wait for a victory, and they followed it with a 3–0 Champions League win over Benfica on Wednesday. Alessia Russo scored all three, giving Arsenal consecutive victories for the first time this season and some long-awaited attacking momentum.
Villa arrive after back-to-back league wins over Liverpool and Everton, then a midweek Players Cup draw with Birmingham City that they won on penalties. Brian Sørensen’s side have found more attacking threat in recent weeks, but Sunday is a different level of test: Arsenal at the Emirates, with a team that now looks closer to the one expected before the season began.
Arsenal are clear favourites, even if the table alone does not yet show it. The model expects their pressure and depth to tell over 90 minutes, with Villa’s best chance likely to come from keeping the game tight and making the most of the moments they do get. For Arsenal, this is an opportunity to turn two encouraging wins into a genuine league recovery.
STAT TO WATCH | Nine points each
Arsenal and Villa both have nine points from seven league matches. Arsenal have scored only seven league goals so far, but Russo’s midweek hat-trick was a timely reminder of the quality they can call on.
West Ham United v Liverpool
Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 · Victoria Road Stadium
Model: West Ham 31% · Draw 31% · Liverpool 38%
Most likely scorelines: 1–1 (14%) · 0–1 (13%) · 0–0 (12%)
West Ham have taken six points from seven league matches but have scored only five goals, which explains why their results have been so difficult to build on. Saturday’s 3–0 defeat at Brighton was another reminder of that problem, although Wednesday’s 2–1 Players Cup win at Charlton gave the squad a more encouraging evening. Ffion Morgan scored both goals, while the heavily rotated side also brought Riko Ueki back into action.
Liverpool remain difficult to place. They scored a stoppage-time equaliser to draw 2–2 with London City last weekend, but are still without a league win since the Merseyside derby a month ago. They had no midweek fixture, so arrive with a little more recovery time than West Ham and with a chance to turn their attacking output into a more useful league return.
Liverpool are narrow favourites, but the forecast deliberately keeps this close. West Ham have enough experienced players to make this uncomfortable at home, particularly if the midweek changes give them a few fresher options. Liverpool’s greater attacking output makes them the likelier winners, but a draw is almost as plausible.
STAT TO WATCH | Five league goals
West Ham have scored only five league goals in seven matches. Liverpool have scored 12, but have won just twice.
Brighton & Hove Albion v Crystal Palace
Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 · Broadfield Stadium
Model: Brighton 71% · Draw 19% · Crystal Palace 11%
Most likely scorelines: 2–0 (11%) · 2–1 (10%) · 1–1 (9%)
Brighton have put together a useful run. Their 3–0 win over West Ham last weekend moved them into the top half, and a much-changed side followed it with a 6–0 Players Cup victory at Wolves on Wednesday. Wolves are a WSL2 opponent, so the result needs context, but it still gave Brighton a chance to rotate and showed the confidence currently running through the squad.
Palace arrive in a more difficult stretch. They have lost their last two league matches, to West Ham and Chelsea, before a 4–2 Players Cup defeat at London City on Wednesday. They remain capable of causing problems going forward, but 15 league goals conceded in seven matches is the issue they have not yet solved.
Brighton are deserved favourites at home. Their recent attacking form gives them a clear edge, while Palace need to make the game more compact than they managed in Bromley if they are to give themselves a chance of taking something from it.
STAT TO WATCH | 16 goals in four matches
Brighton have scored 16 goals across their last four matches in all competitions. Palace have conceded 15 times in seven league games.
Birmingham City v Tottenham Hotspur
Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 · St Andrew’s @ Knighthead Park
Model: Birmingham 18% · Draw 24% · Tottenham 58%
Most likely scorelines: 1–1 (11%) · 1–2 (10%) · 0–2 (10%)
Birmingham’s first league win, against Charlton last weekend, gave them a useful reward for some competitive performances. They followed it with a 1–1 Players Cup draw at Aston Villa on Wednesday, equalising in stoppage time before losing the penalty shootout. It was another indication that they are difficult to put away, even if they now need to turn those moments into more league points.
Tottenham’s league form has swung sharply in the other direction. Three successive defeats have followed their fast start, with 14 goals conceded across those matches. Wednesday’s 6–1 Players Cup win at Bristol City, including a Shekiera Martinez hat-trick, should lift confidence, although it came against WSL2 opposition. The more lasting concern is the loss of summer signing Alice Sombath to an ACL injury, reducing their defensive options at an already difficult moment.
Spurs remain favourites because of their attacking ceiling, but Birmingham have enough recent evidence to believe this can be more competitive than the model suggests. The home side will want to keep the game tight, test a Spurs defence that has been exposed in recent league matches, and make their set pieces count.
STAT TO WATCH | 14 goals conceded in three league games
Tottenham have scored 19 league goals this season, but have conceded 14 in their last three WSL matches.
Charlton Athletic v Chelsea
Sun 1 Nov, 14:30 · The Valley
Model: Charlton 2% · Draw 8% · Chelsea 90%
Most likely scorelines: 0–3 (15%) · 0–2 (14%) · 0–4 (12%)
Charlton are still looking for their first point after seven league matches. Their 1–0 defeat at Birmingham City last weekend was another close game decided by a fine margin, but they have now scored only three league goals while conceding 19. Hosting the league leaders is a formidable next task, though the Valley gives them a chance to make the occasion competitive and give their supporters something to build on.
Chelsea arrive in excellent form. They have taken 19 points from seven league matches, scoring 21 goals and conceding only four, before beating Roma 2–0 in the Champions League on Wednesday. Ellie Carpenter and Kadeisha Buchanan scored after half-time, extending Chelsea’s unbeaten start in all competitions to 11 matches.
Chelsea are overwhelming favourites, but the task is still clear: avoid allowing Charlton an early foothold and manage the quick turnaround from Europe. For Charlton, this is about defensive discipline, staying in the contest for as long as possible, and being ready to take any moment that comes their way.
STAT TO WATCH | 11 matches unbeaten
Chelsea have won nine and drawn two of their opening 11 matches in all competitions. Charlton have lost all seven WSL fixtures so far, but five of those defeats have been by three goals or fewer.